As the cryptocurrency market enters a new year, investors are eagerly waiting for the next bull run. However, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, has expressed skepticism about Ethereum’s potential to deliver strong returns in 2025.
Ethereum May Underperform Bitcoin in 2025
In a recent market report, Thielen stated that Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for a 2025 bull run. According to him, the asset may deliver underwhelming returns compared with Bitcoin. Other analysts are also waiting for more confirmation from the price charts before making any predictions.
"While the possibility of a new catalyst cannot be ruled out, we wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to deliver meaningful rallies next year," Thielen said.
Ethereum’s Volatility and Medium-Term Investment Potential
Thielen noted that while Ethereum’s volatility is an attractive feature for some investors, it remains a poor medium-term investment. He expects ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025.
"While we appreciate Ethereum’s volatility, we believe it remains a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH to underperform BTC once again in 2025," Thielen said. "As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid.’”
Active Validators and Unstaking: A Concern for Ethereum’s Future
One of the most important metrics to watch in 2025 will be the trend in active validators, according to Thielen. However, he noted that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days.
Thielen also argued that a rise in unstaking seems "logical," given Ethereum’s lack of "real demand" outside of staking. This concern is reflected in the chart below:
Ethereum Active Validators vs 1 Month Change in Validators
Chart Source: 10x Research
Attestant’s Chief Business Officer Tim Lowe Disagrees with Thielen’s Assessment
Tim Lowe, Attestant’s chief business officer, recently told Cointelegraph that demand for Ether can easily increase with refined marketing and a unified value proposition. According to him, this would naturally lead to more investors over time.
Lowe sees diversification from Bitcoin as a simple catalyst for Ethereum. However, his views on the matter differ from Thielen’s assessment.
Ethereum vs Bitcoin: A Comparison of Returns
Since January 1, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a significant increase in value, rising by 121.4%. In contrast, Ether clocked a 46.3% return over the same period, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024 was met with strong demand, pushing Bitcoin’s price to new highs within two months. However, when US Ether ETFs launched in July, the demand was significantly less, leading to a more bearish view of the asset.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows vs Ethereum ETF Inflows
| Asset | 2024 Inflows |
| — | — |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $35.3 billion |
| Ether (ETH) | $2.66 billion |
Chart Source: CoinMarketCap
Thielen’s Skepticism about Ethereum Upgrades
Thielen expressed skepticism about the potential impact of upcoming upgrades on Ethereum’s price. He noted that only two out of 19 upgrades have had a notable positive impact on price, and even those occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.
"The three major Ethereum catalysts of 2024 have largely fallen flat, adding little value overall," Thielen said.
Thielen’s Predictions for 2025
Thielen predicted that Ether may continue to underperform against Bitcoin in 2025. However, other crypto analysts say Ether’s price remains uncertain and could move in either direction.
Pseudonymous crypto trader Cold Blooded Schiller suggested in a Dec. 31 post on Twitter that ETH/BTC could break through the 0.04 level in January.
ETH/BTC Ratio: A Metric to Watch
At the time of writing, the ETH/BTC ratio — a metric showing Ether’s relative strength to Bitcoin — was 0.03571, according to TradingView data.
Chart Source: TradingView
In conclusion, while some analysts are optimistic about Ethereum’s potential in 2025, Markus Thielen’s skepticism is worth noting. The cryptocurrency market is known for its unpredictability, and investors should approach any investment decision with caution.
Disclaimer
This article is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
