Introduction
Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, recently made an intriguing statement about Bitcoin’s future growth. According to him, Bitcoin (BTC) will experience an average annual interest rate of 29% over the next 21 years, reaching a value of $13 million by 2045. In this article, we’ll examine his projection and compare it with the Rate of Adoption model presented by Daniele Bernardi.
The Rate of Adoption Model
Daniele Bernardi first introduced the Rate of Adoption model in February 2020 at the Quant Workshop Conference, organized by Diaman Partners Ltd. This model correlates Bitcoin’s price to the growth rate of ‘non-zero’ wallets, which are wallets containing at least a fraction of Bitcoin.
The initial prediction for the 2021 peak was $63,000, slightly below the all-time high of $67,000 in October 2021. In 2023, Bernardi updated the model and published the results in Cointelegraph, predicting a price of $130,000 for the current cycle.
Saylor’s Projection vs. The Rate of Adoption Model
Saylor’s projection assumes an average annual return over the next 21 years, while the Rate of Adoption model uses a more sophisticated power law approach. This method relates the average price per wallet to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation, resulting in an expected market capitalization of Bitcoin.
Using this calculation, we can derive the predicted price for Bitcoin. According to Bernardi’s model, by 2045, Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million on the median curve or exceed $21.6 million on the higher curve driven by the semi-exponential surge marking the end of each bullish cycle.
Short-Term Prediction: The Projected Relative Peak for 2025
Considering the increased adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs, Bernardi recalculated his model and predicted a price of $261,000 for Bitcoin’s peak in 2025. This is nearly double the previous estimate.
**Comparison of Projections**
| Year | Saylor's Projection | Rate of Adoption Model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 2045 | $13 million | $8.3 million (median) / $21.6 million (higher curve) |
| 2025 | N/A | $261,000 |
Caveats and Recommendations
It’s essential to note that these projections are based on assumptions about Bitcoin’s continued existence and adoption rate following a power curve. As the market is filled with individuals who settle for gains of +60% or +100%, only to exit too early and miss out on subsequent price increases, it’s crucial to remain aware of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory.
While Bernardi emphasizes that holding Bitcoin indefinitely is not a guarantee, he suggests that it should be held for as many years as possible. It’s also essential to conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions, ideally with the guidance of a qualified financial adviser.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while Saylor’s projection is bold and attention-grabbing, the Rate of Adoption model presents a more nuanced view of Bitcoin’s future growth. By comparing these two projections, we can gain valuable insights into the potential trajectory of Bitcoin’s price.
As Bernardi wisely puts it: "Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve." It’s crucial to understand the dynamics and potential of Bitcoin thoroughly before making any investment decisions.
About the Author
Daniele Bernardi is a serial entrepreneur and founder of Diaman, a group active in investment management, software development, and crypto activities. He was recognized as an ‘Inventor’ by the European Patent Office for his European and Russian Patent in the field of mobile payments.
Disclaimer
This article is intended for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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