A political shock from the United States combined with a natural disaster has reshaped perceptions and behaviors in Thailand’s housing market, according to Supalai, a SET-listed developer led by Prateep Tangmatitham and Tritecha Tangmatitham. The firm says the so-called “Trump effect” has exerted a far more pronounced pull on demand than the March earthquake, which only caused temporary delays in purchases and transfers. In contrast, the tariff-related environment created a scenario in which some buyers stopped short of completing purchases altogether, including forfeiting down payments in some cases. This nuanced distinction between the earthquake’s transient impact and tariff-driven caution underscores a broader shift in buyer sentiment and market dynamics that Supalai anticipates will influence activity through 2025 and beyond.
The Trump Effect Versus Earthquake: A Tale of Two Shocks
The central claim from Supalai is that the United States’ tariff actions produced a more destabilizing effect on housing demand than the earthquake that struck on March 28. Tritecha Tangmatitham, the managing director, stated that export-related business owners faced a decisive moment when confronted with reciprocal trade tariffs. He noted that some buyers canceled home transfers outright and, in extreme cases, forfeited their down payments without hesitation. The emphasis here is on the firmness of decisions triggered by tariff-related risk, rather than the postponements or hesitations commonly associated with a natural disaster.
This contrast is critical for understanding the trajectory of the market. While the earthquake did create a shock to transaction activity, Supalai’s account portrays the effect as temporary, largely visible in the pattern of quotes and initial inquiries that shifted toward cancellation but then stabilized. For condo buyers in high-rise projects, the quake caused delays rather than permanent withdrawal from the market. The company’s narrative positions the earthquake as an episodic disruption — a disruption that abated as conditions stabilized and purchasing power rebounded toward a more normal range.
In contrast, the Trump tariffs represent a structural constraint on demand. The indications from Supalai are that the tariffs introduced a climate of caution that translated into outright cancellations and a reduction in willingness to transfer ownership. The absence of room for negotiation in some of these scenarios underscores a shift from tactical deferral to definitive withdrawal, a more severe outcome than the earthquake’s impact. This distinction is essential for analysts trying to forecast the market’s path: temporary delays versus genuine contractions in demand.
A direct comparison of immediate reactions illustrates how differently each shock was absorbed by buyers and developers. After the earthquake, roughly half of customers who initially called to cancel transfers did so in practice, but the actual number of cancellations was fewer than ten buyers. This data point signals that, while a portion of buyers briefly paused transactions in response to the earthquake, most returned to the market and proceeded with transfers as soon as conditions stabilized. The Trump-related cancellations, by contrast, were described as outright, with no room for negotiation in some cases, suggesting a more irreversible retreat from commitments.
From Supalai’s perspective, the earthquake’s effect was confined to temporary delays, especially among a subset of buyers—those purchasing condos in high-rise buildings—while the Trump effect introduced a broader drag on the residential market in Bangkok. This has implications for planning and forecasting; the earthquake recovered toward 70% of normal purchasing power, with a projection of a complete return to normal levels by the following year. The Trump effect, however, is anticipated to depress the Greater Bangkok residential market in 2025 to the lowest level in 15 years, a trajectory supported by projections of new unit launches and associated margin dynamics.
To further illustrate the timing and depth of the shifts, Supalai’s leadership highlighted the contrasting outcomes: the earthquake prompted temporary, recoverable delays; the tariff-driven environment triggered outright cancellations and stronger headwinds for buyer confidence. This encapsulates a broader narrative about how external shocks—one physical and one policy-driven—differ in their durability and the strategies developers must deploy in response.
Short-Term Buyer Behavior and Transfer Dynamics
The contrast in shock types also manifests in buyer behavior and the mechanics of transfers, deposits, and reservations. The earthquake induced a reactive wave of inquiries and cautious optimism, with many buyers reassessing timing rather than exiting the market entirely. The data point that around 50% of customers initially called to cancel transfers after the earthquake—but ultimately fewer than 10 buyers actually followed through with cancellation—depicts a market where uncertainty produced short-lived hesitancy but not durable attrition.
This pattern is essential for understanding how the market absorbed the shock and what it implies for 2025. The fact that the Earthquake prompted “temporary delays” implies that demand remained intact at a base level, with timing being the primary variable. The 70% rebound to normal purchasing power is a hopeful sign that the market can regain momentum if conditions stabilize and consumer confidence returns.
In the tariff scenario, the dynamic is quite different. Buyers affected by the Trump tariffs cancelled outright, with no room for negotiation, signaling a sharper contraction in demand. The absence of negotiation signals discipline among buyers facing heightened risk or cost, and it suggests that some reservations would not be salvaged through negotiation or concessions. The implications for developers include a more cautious approach to inventory management, longer sales cycles, and potential adjustments to pricing or incentives to stimulate interest as macroeconomic and policy uncertainties evolve.
Within this context, Supalai emphasizes the persistence of high-rise condo demand as a particular area of sensitivity. The earthquake’s impact flitted away quickly for most, but the tariffs carved a deeper, more lasting impression on buyer behavior in this segment. The company’s leadership also points to a broader implication: the importance of maintaining liquidity and flexible project planning to weather policy shocks and macroeconomic volatility.
The near-term narrative, therefore, centers on how much of the market’s activity has shifted to a risk-averse posture. For developers and investors, the challenge is to determine which segments are more resilient and how to align product offerings with the evolving risk appetites of buyers. The data presented by Supalai provides a framework for evaluating resilience by category, including project type, location, and the financing environment that buyers navigate.
Market Outlook for Greater Bangkok: 2025 Projections and Unit Launch Trajectories
Looking ahead to 2025, Supalai’s management projects a depressed milieu for the Greater Bangkok residential market, driven by the ripple effects of the Trump tariffs. The forecast envisions activity at its lowest level in 15 years, with only 60,000–70,000 new units launched during the year — a stark contrast to the 130,000-unit peak observed in 2013. The narrative emphasizes a long-term decline in peak volumes, acknowledging that the market may never return to its former apex but still holds a possibility of partial recovery to a more modest baseline of 90,000–110,000 new units per year as sentiment and consumer spending recover.
This outlook is anchored in a multi-faceted assessment of supply and demand dynamics. The projections position 2025 as a year of constrained new supply, reflecting the deleveraging of risk and the recalibration of investment decisions in light of tariff-related uncertainties. Yet the potential for a rebound remains contingent on improving consumer confidence and macroeconomic conditions that encourage a return to higher expenditure on housing.
In this framework, the market’s path depends on how quickly sentiment improves and how effectively consumer spending can reestablish an upward trajectory. The 15-year trough expectation for new unit launches indicates a structural easing in supply capacity, which could provide some relief to buyers if demand stabilizes, but it also underscores the fragility of the market in the face of ongoing policy and macroeconomic headwinds.
Meanwhile, the margins experienced by the residential sector have deteriorated to alarming levels. Supalai notes that the fourth quarter of 2024 was the worst on record, and the first quarter of 2025 was even worse. The residential sector gross margin stands at 28% — the lowest ever recorded. Historically, margins have not fallen below 30%, with the peak around 35%. This stark contrast highlights the severity of current conditions, signaling that any recovery would require substantial improvements in pricing power, cost optimization, or demand normalization that could restore profitability to previously healthier levels.
From a strategic standpoint, the market remains flat in the near term, even as some investors and developers hope for a rebound. A key caveat is the expected easing of loan-to-value (LTV) limits and a decline in interest rates, which have been cited as potential catalysts for revived housing demand. However, these levers alone may not suffice to reverse the downward trajectory without a broader improvement in consumer sentiment and employment dynamics that boost purchasing power and willingness to commit to large-scale housing investments.
Within this landscape, Supalai’s strategic plan remains anchored in visible opportunities to moderate costs and optimize development timelines. The company reports that its targets for 2025 remain unchanged despite the challenged environment: 36 new projects with a combined value of 41 billion baht, presales of 32 billion baht, and revenue of 30 billion baht. The confidence conveyed by these targets suggests a disciplined approach to project selection, cost management, and market timing. It also implies a belief that external shocks, while disruptive, are not fatal to long-term growth if addressed with resilient execution and prudent financial management.
Several positive factors accompany this otherwise cautious projection. Supalai points to cheaper steel costs and a 10–15% decline in land prices as factors that can help reduce development costs and improve project economics. The reduced input costs can support margins even as selling conditions remain challenging, contributing to more favorable profitability dynamics and enabling the company to maintain its pipeline of new launches and presales. The combination of lower production costs and a disciplined project roster is central to achieving the 2025 goals in a climate where demand remains volatile and policy changes can abruptly alter market sentiment.
Company-Focused Outlook: Supalai’s 2025 Strategy and Operational Bearings
Supalai’s leadership underscores that, despite macro challenges, the company’s strategic posture remains resilient. The plan to bring 36 new projects worth a total of 41 billion baht on line in 2025 reflects a measured approach to growth, balancing the desire to expand market share with the need to preserve cash flow and profitability under stressed conditions. The projection of 32 billion baht in presales and 30 billion baht in revenue indicates a balanced expectation across sales velocity, pricing, and product mix, with a focus on units that can deliver sustainable margins in a constrained market.
The firm’s commentary about the macro environment highlights several critical risk factors and potential upside catalysts. On the risk side, tariff-induced demand contractions, ongoing policy uncertainty, and a slow housing cycle in Bangkok create a challenging setting for sales and development. The company’s caution is warranted given the record-low margins and the persistent softness in demand across the sector. On the upside, the anticipated benefits of cheaper steel and lower land costs offer a counterweight to the negative demand dynamics, potentially enabling more aggressive project economics and better cash generation if supply conditions hold and competition remains rational.
The company’s assessment of the market bears out a broader industry narrative: while the near-term horizon remains clouded by policy risk and demand softness, there are structural improvements in input costs that can cushion the impact. The drop in land prices by 10–15% is a meaningful lever for developers, enabling more favorable land cost absorption in project budgets and allowing for more competitive pricing or enhanced product features to attract buyers. The cheaper steel costs further compress construction expenses, which can translate into healthier gross margins or the possibility of more cost-efficient delivery timelines.
Supalai’s emphasis on preserving its strategic roadmap despite headwinds also implies a continued focus on product quality, location advantages, and timely execution. In such an environment, developers with robust project pipelines, efficient capital allocation, and a flexible approach to financing are better positioned to weather shocks and position themselves for a recovery phase when market sentiment improves. The company’s commitment to pursuing a diversified portfolio of projects and maintaining presales commitments indicates a disciplined approach to ensure liquidity and operational stability, even if near-term results remain under pressure.
The narrative around 2025 implies a two-sided dynamic: on the one hand, a market constrained by policy shocks and demand weakness; on the other, a set of cost-based tailwinds that can improve project economics if leveraged effectively. For Supalai and similar developers, the path forward hinges on translating cost reductions into competitive offerings that still meet evolving buyer preferences and financial constraints. In practice, this means optimizing the product mix, ensuring project risk is managed through careful site selection and phasing, and maintaining a disciplined capital structure that can withstand a protracted period of slower sales.
A vital element in this framework is the role of consumer confidence and macroeconomic momentum. If sentiment turns favorable and consumer spending accelerates, the market could move toward a more sustainable recovery trajectory, lifting demand and enabling higher volumes of new unit launches. The potential recovery to 90,000–110,000 new units per year, as cited by Supalai, would represent a meaningful improvement from the projected 60,000–70,000 units for 2025, but would still reflect a market far below the peak of 130,000 units in 2013. The pace of this recovery will likely be uneven, with some subsegments and geographies outperforming others, particularly those with lower price points or stronger value propositions to buyers seeking affordable housing.
From a corporate strategy perspective, Supalai’s 2025 plan also implies a readiness to adjust pricing, incentives, or financing terms in response to evolving demand conditions. While the company has not indicated a willingness to depart from its target volumes and revenue goals, the ability to nimbly adjust to the market could be a decisive factor in achieving the annual objectives, especially if the 2025 environment features continued policy risk or persistent demand softness. Additionally, the company’s focus on preserving margins in a challenging year suggests a strong emphasis on cost controls, procurement strategies, and supply chain resilience to minimize margin erosion as the market normalizes.
The Road Ahead: Implications for Stakeholders and Market Health
For buyers, developers, and investors, the juxtaposition of the earthquake’s temporary disruption with tariff-driven demand constraints provides a nuanced picture of risk and opportunity. The data points drawn from Supalai’s experience illustrate how external shocks can differentially shape behavior, alter the timing of transactions, and influence the trajectory of sales velocity. The earthquake’s effect, while disruptive, appears recoverable, suggesting that buyers may return to the market as the immediate risk subsides and purchasing power approaches pre-disaster levels. The Trump tariffs, however, introduce a more structural deterrent to buying decisions, particularly for transactions that involve transfers and financing that could be sensitive to policy shifts and external costs.
For policymakers and market watchers, these dynamics underscore the importance of stable policy environments and predictable fiscal measures to support housing demand. The contrast between a natural disaster that temporarily dampens activity and a tariff regime that dampens demand more persistently highlights how policy choices can shape consumer confidence and investment planning, with downstream effects on construction activity, employment in the sector, and regional economic development.
From a sector-wide perspective, the resilience of Supalai’s strategy hinges on its ability to translate the anticipated cost savings into compelling value propositions for buyers. Lower input costs provide a cushion, but competitive pricing and targeted product offerings will be critical to maintaining presales momentum and achieving revenue targets. The company’s stated 2025 goals reflect a disciplined approach to growth, emphasizing a pipeline of 36 new projects valued at 41 billion baht, with presales of 32 billion and revenue of 30 billion. Meeting these targets will likely require careful market timing, tight project management, and a nuanced understanding of buyer segments most responsive to current conditions.
In sum, Supalai’s narrative presents a dual-regime forecast: a near-term environment shaped by policy-induced demand volatility and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, and a longer-term path toward a more balanced market, aided by lower input costs and potential improvements in lending conditions. The balance of risk and opportunity will determine how the Bangkok residential market evolves through 2025 and beyond, influencing developers’ strategies, buyer behavior, and the overall health of the Thai housing sector.
Conclusion
The juxtaposition of the Trump effect and the March earthquake reveals a nuanced landscape for Thailand’s housing market, as seen through the lens of Supalai, a leading Bangkok developer. The firm’s leadership underscores that the tariff-driven impact on demand has proven more destabilizing than the earthquake, with some buyers ultimately canceling transfers and forfeiting deposits when faced with tariff-related uncertainties. By contrast, the earthquake induced temporary delays rather than permanent exits from the market, with a temporary downward shift in activity that began to rebound toward 70% of normal purchasing power and is expected to return to full strength by the following year.
Looking ahead to 2025, Supalai projects a depressed Greater Bangkok residential market, forecasting only 60,000–70,000 new units launched during the year—the lowest level in 15 years, and well below the 2013 peak of 130,000 units. Yet the firm also envisions a potential recovery to 90,000–110,000 new units per year once sentiment and consumer spending improve, signaling a measured, longer-term rebalancing rather than an abrupt rebound. The fourth-quarter 2024 results being the worst on record, followed by an even weaker first quarter of 2025, with a 28% gross margin, underscore the depth of the downturn and the challenge of restoring profitability in the near term.
Despite the softness, Supalai’s targets for 2025 remain intact: 36 new projects totaling 41 billion baht, presales of 32 billion baht, and revenue of 30 billion baht. The company also points to several supportive factors, including cheaper steel costs and a 10–15% reduction in land prices, which collectively help reduce development costs and could improve project economics. The combination of a constrained demand environment with favorable input costs implies that value creation will hinge on execution discipline, efficient cost management, and strategic project selections.
Stakeholders should monitor how the market absorbs policy shocks while leveraging cost efficiencies to sustain growth. As the Bangkok residential market navigates this complex terrain, the ability to translate cost advantages into compelling value propositions for buyers will be pivotal. If sentiment improves and consumer spending strengthens, the 2025 market may transition from a low-activity phase toward a more balanced path, even if it does not reclaim its previous peak. Supalai’s 2025 plan reflects a cautious, value-focused approach designed to weather the current headwinds while positioning the company to capitalize on potential stabilization and recovery in the medium term.
